Dr Malcolm Hugh Patterson | What a Donald Trump re-election means for Australian security

Despite mounting legal problems, he remains by far the leading Republican candidate in the next US Presidential election. Mr Trump intends to campaign while meeting obligations to appear in court.

Should he be re-elected, there is a possibility that his trial may be halted while he is in office. For various reasons, this point is not settled law. And if he is re-elected, serious uncertainties will quickly cloud Australian security.

Re-election of a truculent, vindictive and volatile President Trump would intensify memories and anxieties in capitals around the world. From 2016 to 2020, Mr Trump styled himself as an "America first" president with a penchant for isolationist rhetoric.

Alliances and other forms of interstate co-operation appeared to elicit little sense of obligation upon him. He also held a favourable view of presidential unpredictability. There seems to be no reason to expect his impulsiveness to be diminished in November of 2024.

A particularly troublesome problem is that a Trump victory is likely to occur in the context of a rising danger of armed conflict over Taiwan. It also seems probable that Canberra will participate in a Sino-US struggle. If so, this belligerence will exacerbate an accompanying vulnerability.

Through AUKUS, Australian security has become largely reliant on American military industries. In other words, the US is to supply much of the means required to defend lives and property against harm the Chinese Communists will attempt to inflict if war breaks out. Without extensive US assistance, Peoples' Republic of China (PRC) missile attacks are very likely to expose demoralising weaknesses.

Another gnawing unease shadows our government over US executive and legislative resolve required to expedite technology and intellectual property (IP) transfers. Elements of AUKUS "Pillar Two" are essential to future Australian Defence Force (ADF) operations. Expected transfers include artificial intelligence with military applications, hypersonics, counter-hypersonics, quantum computing and electronic warfare technology.

Without American IP and other permissions required to build certain key technologies, it becomes difficult to envisage a credible defence of Australia.

Will a future President Trump permit urgent transfers of US military technologies to Australia in a genuine crisis?

One example could be missile allocations consistent with Australian government requirements enumerated within the recent Strategic Defence Review.

The answer to this query remains frankly uncertain. What is certain is that President Xi and his Communist Party cadres remain patient, methodical and well-informed. They already anticipate the chaos which will result from a Trump refusal. If this moment arrives, it will convert a partly coherent Canberra plan into a partly completed undertaking which is likely to fail. And if that happens, what is Plan B - if it exists?

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Should President Biden be returned in 2024, the flow of military supplies to Australia will be aided by a degree of executive government reliability. Even so, a benign climate elsewhere in Washington will not necessarily be forthcoming.

One inheritance from Mr Trump's previous occupancy of the White House was a tenacious personality cult, the legacy of which is a rudderless Republican Party which is yet to recover its bearings.

This is unsurprising while GOP Congressional seats remain partly filled with conspiracy theorists who utter oddly bizarre claims. Trump loyalists apparently perceive job security in the Senate and Congress to depend upon the creation of further chaos. Invigorated by Mr Trump's return, their agitation could easily sustain persistent dangers further afield.

Procrastination, prevarication, poor-faith compromises or other resistance could hinder transfers of military technologies which are not at present manufactured in Australia. Only last week Republican Senators threatened to block the transfer of "Virginia" class submarines to Australia.

The Australian government and most of our citizens remain supportive of American power in the context of both ANZUS and wider, bilateral co-operation.

Contrast this with the widespread dismay Mr Trump aroused among Australians during his first term. At that time, the erratic president displayed disturbing personality traits, unpredictability and florid dishonesty. Mr Trump may or may not suffer a disordered mind.

Regardless, he may be president during a major armed conflict waged against the PRC. If involved, Australian air and naval losses seem likely, in addition to devastating missile destruction on Australian soil.

On a characteristically abrupt and distorted impulse, Mr Trump might order key elements of US forces to pull back from China's periphery. It is certainly conceivable that his petulance and notorious fondness for dictatorships could see ANZUS obligations ignored and military co-operation with Australia shelved on a whim. Nor does it appear likely that this putative Commander-in-Chief would evince sympathy for millions of Australians he unexpectedly sets adrift.

In this light, it would seem prudent for Canberra to draw up alternatives to heavy reliance on a Trump White House. Trust in his administration would carry all the ingredients of a colossal miscalculation.